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In 2016 the word post-truth found its way to the Oxford Dictionary as an adjective “relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief.” The term “post-truth” had increased by around 2,000% in 2016 compared to 2015. The other contenders for the title had included the noun “alt-right”, shortened from the fuller form “alternative right” and defined as “an ideological grouping associated with extreme conservative or reactionary viewpoints, characterised by a rejection of mainstream politics and by the use of online media to disseminate deliberately controversial content”.
The two words came to define much of the headlines of 2017 at home and the world. The year saw the rise of the ‘spin’ whereby any event or news was butchered and battered until a pre- determined narrative was forcibly imposed on the collective conscience of the nation. The electronic media in India was its worst offenders egged on by an ever-rising jingoist and nationalist social media. Well, if 2017 was bad, 2018 will get only worse, the trend is likely to multiply especially with so many crucial elections around the corner and the rising feeling that the Modi government could well hold the general elections by end 2018, well ahead of the 2019 deadline.
And so 2018 promises to be an exciting year – from foreign policy to economic growth, from domestic politics to cultural clashes and companies and disruptive ideas. The Indian news headlines are most likely to see these 10 themes play out during the course of the year, while every country will have its own kaleidoscope of opportunities and challenges. But we can only predict what’s in store because neither nations nor its leaders follow any path of predictability. In fact, we cannot expect our leaders to follow any single script in an age of constant disruption in all fields, from politics and technology to society and business.
That said, we can largely predict the 10 news headlines that we will be seeing throughout 2018.
With both India and China claiming to be the power centre in the region, China will continue to be India’s biggest adversary. Way ahead of India in economic terms, this USD 11.2 trillion economy will continue to hog India’s huge markets with its powerful manufacturing. And it will continue to support Pakistan, needling India. China is a nation getting over its past humiliation and instead of rising above and creating paths of mutual respect the country’s foreign policy is based on humiliating other nations to feel its arrival.
From backing Pakistan to avenging Doklam, China will keep India on tenterhooks through 2018. China is a bully and the best thing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to do is to look at multi-designated Xi Jinping — like North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, Xi is President of China, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, is the “Paramount Leader”, and “core leader” — in the eye.
As a recoil from China’s direct aggression, Japan is strengthening its relationship with India. China’s support to its other friend, North Korea, has forced this island nation to veer towards India. By strengthening strategic and economic ties with India, this USD 4.8 trillion economy, the world’s third-largest, now gets the added support of a regional power. At a global level, it has the support of the US.
Suzuki was the start of India’s economic interests with Japan. Today the consolidation of such exchange is looking beyond single-deal mechanisms. Clearly, Japan is ready to put its money where its strategic interests are, and making an effort to build a strong India-Japan bridge. And despite all criticisms, Modi too has gone out of his way to put his weight behind the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet-train. On its part, India is open for business with Japan.
On the nuclear front, the India-Japan civil nuclear agreement will see the building of six new nuclear reactors for power generation.
With a maverick like Donald Trump in the White House, the United States will continue to remain unpredictable. American President Donald Trump has finally come around to accepting the truth about Pakistan’s role in global terror and has called its bluff by announcing to cut all aid to this heavily aid-dependent nation. Trump’s acknowledgement that Pakistan is a rogue state that has institutionalised terror as its second pillar of what it pretends to call ‘democracy’ — the first being military. This is good optics for the world that has suffered from this epicentre of terror.
As far as India goes, we need to be more circumspect — the good optics may turn into myopia. The USD 18.6 trillion economy is clear about its foreign policy, which is to manage US interests. For the past several decades, the focus of Indian foreign policy has been to look good, be the “good boy” of international relations. But foreign policy is a field that has no first principles, it stands on shifting stands. Finally, on the economic front, stronger India-US ties make for a deeper friendship.
Pakistan, as usual, will be the running story through 2018. Even though India did manage to score some diplomatic victory by isolating it on global forums and sending a stern message with the surgical strikes across the border. But Pakistan continues to be a terror- breeding ground with its terror focused on Kashmir and Afghanistan. Currently, India-Pakistan trade stands at USD 2 billion down from USD 2.7 billion in 2013-14. In 2018 we could see a further isolation of Pakistan in the world except among the Islamic nations of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). But that will hardly deter Pakistan as will continue to keep Indian security forces on its toes. The government which is under military control despite being civilian will pretend to walk the thin line between politics and diplomacy. The country will continue to feed on rhetoric but lose its significance.
This being the NDA government’s last full budget before elections, not much can be expected with business being as usual. With the results in Gujarat deliver a wakeup call to the BJP, the government is likely to address the farmer issue and pay extra attention to the poor.This government is serious about economic growth — of which farmers are a part and have been promised a doubling of their income already — and from introducing the goods and services tax (GST) to executing the insolvency and bankruptcy code to raising India’s doing business rankings, the government has done the dirty work of creating the catalysts for growth, which will continue through Budget 2018. The bigger worry in Budget 2018 will be a rising fiscal deficit, which in all likelihood will exceed targets.
Economic growth will return from the third quarter of the current financial year to 31 March 2018 and continue well over the next few quarters. The main reason will be the introduction of the GST from 1 July 2017. After the initial blips that took into account the technical glitches, the excessive compliance burden on small and medium entrepreneurs, and the political wrangling around rates between state finance ministers and the Centre, the GST will now be a steady ship with high sails. The next financial year will see a sharp rise in indirect taxes collections, the fruits of which will be reaped by both the Centre and the states. Insolvencies and their resolution will also grab the headline throughout 2018 — managing business failures are as important to economic growth as building businesses. The Financial Resolution and Deposit Insurance Bill will get passed and failure of financial firms will finally have a system in place. Riding these would be the stock markets, which will grow through 2018.
There are some big elections coming our way in 2018 as a forerunner to bigger ones in 2019 that could decide the future of the next general elections. Five states are up for elections in 2018 followed by 11 in 2019. Karnataka will be the only large state with 223 seats that will have its assembly elections in April-May 2018. Four smaller states will also be going in for elections in 2018. Soon after Budget 2018, the three states of Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura will go first in February-March 2018. Although these are smaller states with 60 seats each, they will set the political debate for Karnataka, which will go for elections in April-May 2018. The end of the year will see elections in another small state, Mizoram, in October-November 2018 for 40 seats.
The political wane will only start fluttering with these elections and the whole discourse will spill onto 2019 as the nation gets ready for 11 state elections culminating with the Big Battle 2019. The crucial states that will battle in 2019 areRajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand. The return of Rahul Gandhi and the Congress will be a running motif through 2018.
Three companies — Air India, Jio and Apple — will stay in the headlines throughout 2018. Air India because of the potential disinvestment and/or strategic sale. The noise will be created by incumbent employees, particularly its highly-paid pilots, who will get political support from the Left and the Congress. Much of this support would be part of their Opposition-dharma than on a principles-based stance. Reliance Jio, with its high-quality data service and affordable pricing, will continue to roll on. Consumers have embraced it and today India is the world’s largest data consumer. Jio and the changes it has brought to the entire industry will transform the way the Indian economy and its economic agent's function. Finally, Apple will remain under pressure, legally and on the consumer front, as its slowing down iPhones face lawsuits (nine on the last count) and the company’s reputation takes a hit. It’s going to be a tough year for the world’s most valued company and one that was heading towards becoming the world’s first trillion-dollar corporation.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics news have been largely confined to the inside pages in India, lagging the world. This will change in 2018. Already, the US, China and Russia are building AI capacities and hubs to be leaders of the world. For all three, AI is a strategic weapon. Sadly, the discourse in India hasn’t even begun. In 2018, India will need to get its AI facilities going. It will begin through businesses but will find their way into the government as well. For this, India needs to create an ecosystem that nourishes talent and innovation, which despite all good intentions is missing. This change, however, will not happen without a pushback, as the wider discourse holds forth on AI replacing jobs. Already, robots have entered manufacturing plants. They will grow in 2018. Time is the key here: if we don’t get it right, we will end up importing the same technologies from the US and Russia, as we do our defence equipment. The political impact of AI and robots will need to be supported by smart policies around these disruptive technologies. But on this front, India will not be alone: this is a global problem. That said, both AI and robotics will make headlines in India during 2018.
The rising clash of cultures so evident on our social media every day will only widen in 2018. In 2017 we saw the rise of the spin – to doctor news, information to create a whole new narrative far from the truth. This need to dispense a pre- determined narrative has seen our media manipulated by political parties and the powers that be. 2018 will only see it multiply. Social media which have made everyone the master of their own news will see the hardening of positions between communities, religions, economic theories, political stances and social options.
The growing polarization in society induced by those holding the levers of power and the media is only going to get worse in 2018 with elections coming up and the ruling power getting ready to face a fresh mandate. It’s not going to be an easy year – this 2018.
The faces that will dominate the news fronts in 2018 will include a number of fresh faces along with many recognized during the past year of political disruptions and those raising group awareness.
He was nominated in November to take over as the next central banker in his role as the Fed chair from being the Federal Reserve Governor. Powell will be inheriting the title from the first female chair Janet Yellen in February. He will be closely scrutinized by markets to see if he follows suit on the central bank’s current path by raising rates and unwinding the Fed’s balance sheet.
He was in the shadow of Zimbabwe dictator and President Robert Mugabe for years before he made the move that would see him oust his erstwhile leader to take charge in his place. Emmerson Mnangagwa was the Vice President before he was sworn in as the incumbent. Mnangagwa promised Zimbabweans a new future with the nation entering into a new stage of democracy after four decades of Mugabe rule. The new leader also promised to tackle the main issues of jobs and poverty and a boost to the economy. The world will surely be watching Mnangagwa closely in 2018 and Zimbabwe, a country under a single man rule for 40 years. The other leader to be under close watch is going to be Cyril Ramaphosa elected to be the leader of South Africa’s ANC ruling party held previously by President Jacob Zuma.
The UK's Royal Family never fails to catch headlines and 2018 is going to be no exception. In the spring, actress Megan Markel is set to wed Prince Harry; while the Duchess of Cambridge, Kate Middleton is expected to give birth to her and Prince William's third child.
Both events are expected to provide a boost to the UK economy, and could even promote tourism and retail sales.
What happens in 2018 is crucial for the Brexit divorce proceedings since March 29, 2019, provisionally marks the moment when the UK is set to leave the Europen Union. 2017 came to a close with EU leaders giving the go-ahead for Brexit talks to move forward after both sides faced impasses in order to reach a compromise.
In fact, even UK politics went through a volatile election period after the snap elections called by Theresa May. So what will 2018 mean exactly for the UK leader and will negotiators from each side agree on future challenging topics like trade?
The big man of the media has always been in the news. The entertainment industry could be in for some big shakeups with Twenty-First Century Fox announcing that Disney was going to buy assets of the group in a deal worth more than $52 billion in stock, which if it goes through could seriously disrupt the entertainment industry.
Another big deal that could come through in 2018 is the Twenty-First Century Fox proposal to acquire Sky with the European broadcaster having agreed to a cash offer of 10.75 Pound Sterling ($14.42) per Sky share.
But the Sky deal is dependent on concerns of Britain’s competition watchdog who is set to give its verdict on Executive Chairman Rupert Murdoch’s bid to buy Sky.