2016 HAS INDEED been a tumultuous year for India’s Armed Forces and on the whole has been a promising year for the military. On the operational front, a more vigorous policy was put in place to deal with Pakistansponsored terrorism. India’s border with China remained stable and insurgency in the affected states of Northeast India further reduced in intensity. Great strides have taken place in pursuing the dream of selfsufficiency in defence production. We still import about 80 per cent of our defence needs but policy changes point to increasing levels of indigenisation in the years to come. The poor state of relations between the military and India’s bureaucracy, however, remains a cause of concern.
The situation in Jammu and Kashmir remains stable despite repeated attempts by separatists within the state and their Pakistani backers to up the ante and stoke violence. Civilian fatalities due to terrorist action dipped to eleven in 2016 - the lowest figure since the start of violence in early 1990. The number of armed terrorists in the state too showed a declining trend, despite Pakistani attempts to up the ante through infiltration of terrorists into India, which it continues to train in various training camps inside Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). India’s response to such naked aggression was defensive but a change in policy saw India retaliating through a surgical strike on terrorist bases inside POK on 29 September 2016 and also responding firmly to Pakistani provocation on the Line of Control (LC). This changed the mindset in dealing with Pakistan is likely to bear fruit over a period of time.
It is no one’s case that Pakistan will be chastised through just one surgical strike. Each act of aggression by Pakistan would require being firmly dealt with, even though such a policy may lead to an escalation of the conflict. There is a need to increase the cost to the Pakistan Army exponentially for supporting terror groups, thereby forcing Pakistan to act in a more responsible manner. For long, Pakistan has played the nuclear card, with a view to deterring India from responding to its sponsorship of terrorism. What the surgical strikes did was to call the Pakistan bluff, after which Pakistan realised that it had no option other than to use terrorists to carry out sneak attacks on Indian Army posts. That explains the attack carried out on an army post in Nagrota on 29 November which claimed seven lives and on an army convoy on 17 December in which three soldiers died. More such attacks can be expected in the coming months.
The proactive response to Pakistani terror must now be renewed with greater force on the Line of Control (LoC), without pause. The possibility of escalation remains, but that is the price that the nation will have to pay if retribution to the Pakistan military is to be effective. The Army, for its part, must not get into a besieged mentality but must dominate its surroundings and ensure that armed attackers are eliminated before they are in a position to strike. This could lead to collateral damage at times. The military leadership must hold the hands of its units in such cases and simultaneously, sensitise the political leadership of the same. Post demonetisation, the terrorist groups are on the back foot and over time, will find sustenance difficult. This must be effectively exploited in 2017.
The Northeast remains comparatively peaceful, with civilian casualties down to double digits and the overall violence levels declining. Violence is largely confined to Manipur and some parts of Assam. With an increased focus on the development of the region as part of the Centre’s Act East policy, the situation is likely to stabilise further in 2017.
India’s excessive dependence on imports for its defence needs remains a cause for concern. India has 41 Ordnance Factories (OF) and nine Defence Public Sector Undertakings to cater to the requirement of the armed forces, yet we import about 80 percent of our defence needs. This underlines the need for co-opting the private sector into defence production and this process got a fillip in 2016. The new Defence Procurement procedure also took effect in 2016 which augurs well for the ‘Make in India’ campaign.
After a laborious journey of 33 years, India’s Light Combat Aircraft, Tejas saw fruition in 2016. The aircraft compares favourably with the best in the world and the Air Force is set to procure 200 of them. Currently, the Indian Navy is building 48 warships at domestic shipyards and by 2027, it plans to have 198 warships compared with its current fleet of 137 warships. For the Army, indigenous production of the Dhanush 155 mm towed howitzer entered into active production in 2016.
The year also saw an agreement being signed between India and the U.S. for the purchase of 145 M777A2 155mm Ultra Light howitzers. This will greatly augment the Army’s firepower. As India’s defence industrial base starts expanding, the forces too must look for indigenous solutions, to reduce dependence on imports. However, the onus also lies on the OFB and the DPSUs to deliver. The coming in of the private sector into defence also marks a significant and welcome shift in policy which occurred in 2016. It will go a long way in creating a vibrant defence industrial base and give a fillip to the indigenisation effort in 2017.
While the operational scenario and the acquisition process seem to be heading Northwards, the state of relations between the military and India’s bureaucracy remains abysmal. The Armed Forces remain deeply suspicious of the bureaucracy, largely because their experience till date of bureaucratic shenanigans has not been very flattering. Why the defence force is denied space in the decision-making process remains a mystery, with India being perhaps the only democracy in the world with such a practice. The bureaucrats in the MoD lack expertise to advise on defence matters, yet are vested with complete financial and decision-making powers without being held accountable for the same. That accountability continues to rest on the shoulders of the military’s leadership, sans the financial and decision-making powers.
Such a paradoxical situation will sooner rather than later invite disaster. It is the time that the entire MoD is revamped and staffed with at least 50 percent officers from the Armed Forces, with the post of defence secretary and secretary defence production being held by four star ranked officers from the Armed Forces. The CDS will probably come about in 2017 which is a welcome step but reforms are also required in the MoD, which appears doubtful as of now.
2016 has put Indian defence as indeed the whole country on the cusp of change. This is a welcome departure from the status quo mentality which was the Indian hallmark since Independence. It is important that the reform process which was begun in 2016 be continued with vigour in the new year. While conflict termination in the troubled areas of the country is unlikely in the immediate future, the initiatives taken in 2016 will most certainly see a reduction in levels of violence in 2017. That, along with progress in creating a vibrant defence industrial should be the goal of 2017.