Modi should continue to tread a cautious but determined path internationallyLIKE ALL INDIAN Prime Ministers before him, Narendra Modi will be in the US soon to hold a summit meeting with US President Barack Obama. That meeting with Obama, one of the most powerful leaders of this world today, is not unusual. But what the US House of Representatives John Boehner did on July 30 this year is definitely unprecedented, and some would say, unthinkable.
Boehner sent out an openended invite to Modi to come over and address theUS Congress joint session on a date “convenient” to the BJP leader. Incidentally, Modi is the only leader in the world to have been denied a visa to the US, citing a US law on religious freedom.
But the strategy behind Boehner’s letter, as reports from Washington suggest, is that when Modi is in the US, the Congress may not be in session. “If not for the unpredictability of the House schedule in late September of this year, an invitation for you to address a Joint Meeting during your upcoming trip to the United States would have been extended,” he wrote in his letter. That uncertainty is now turning into an opportunity for Modi to position himself as a global leader.
One, the Boehner's letter did not come out of the writer’s love for Modi, but his acceptance of the fact that the Indian Prime Minister’s popularity is growing within the US, as over 80 lawmakers wrote to him urging to send out the invite. Two, Modi is being wooed by almost all the nations of the world that have some business interest in India; the moolah that India has to offer in global trade is the real magnet. Being a shrewd politician who understands what a sales pitch really is, as witnessed during his nine-month parliamentary poll campaign, Modi is definitely going to leverage that advantage to emerge as a world leader the global community respects.
Already, there are signs in this direction. The Obama administration has sent over two dozen senior officials one after another to India in the three months Modi has been India's Prime Minister; sometime in the first week of August three of its top-ranking secretary-level officials were in New Delhi wooing the Indian Prime Minister.
In fact, one of the top three — US Secretary of State John Kerry – even tried to dismiss the then George W Bush Administration’s decision to deny Modi a visa to the US in 2005, noting that there has been an administration change both in the US and in India since. All top nations of the world, including those from Europe, have had their heads of states and governments calling up the new elected Indian Prime Minister to congratulate and express intent to do business, or inviting him for a bilateral visit.
France, on its behalf, sent its Foreign Minister Fabius Laurent to hardsell the Rafale combat planes to India during his July visit. Laurent met Modi and the primary focus of his talks with the Indian PM was, ofcourse, defence business.
The Chinese too see an opportunity to further the bilateral ties and to resolve some of the pending issues, including more confidence-building measures along the 4,057-km Line of Control between the two nations, now that India has a strong leader in Modi.
That said, it became quite evident on the first day of Modi’s government that his focus is going to be bettering the souring ties between India and its South Asian neighbours and his invitation to the heads of governments of the seven SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) neighbours indicated as much; the invites included those to his Pakistan counterpart Nawaz Sharif, and to Mauritius, which has a dominant Indian Diaspora.
That “Neighbours First” move, said to be his own idea, is still being seen as a master stroke in diplomacy by India watchers, who feel it has clearly established India as the undisputed leader of the South Asian nations andSAARC. The goodwill that Modi earned from the leaders in the Indian neighbourhood could be felt immediately and as both Pakistan and Sri Lanka moved quickly to release Indian prisoners, mostly fishermen who strayed into the neighbouring nation’s waters.
That apart, Modi chose Bhutan for his first foreign nation trip. Bhutan, as the friendliest nation that India has in its neighbourhood, was a choice nobody could miss for its significance. There was Modi sending across a message that India, being the largest and the most prosperous of nations in the South Asian region will be more benign towards its most friendly neighbours.
His Nepal visit, which came in July, just two months after Bhutan, has clearly re-established India’s primacy for Kathmandu’s diplomacy, even upstaging the recent Chinese moves there to wean away the Himalayan nation from New Delhi.
Modi travelled to Brazil, again in July, where he participated in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit, and shared stage with Russian President Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping, South Africa’s Jacob Zuma, and the host nation’s Dilma Rousseff. The first overseas engagement for Modi is seen as a remarkable victory for India and the man’s contribution to the multilateral forum in ensuring the establishment of the New Development Bank, a tangible design for a global institution, is being hailed. That’s because not only did he suggest the name for the bank that will fund development projects in the five nations, he also ensured that an Indian will head it for the first five years. That was a significant indication of the leadership role that Modi could play in the international arena in the years to come, as he ensured India’s major contribution in the setting up of the New Development Bank, even though China had walked away with the BRICS decision to headquarter the bank in Shanghai.
With these foreign visits, bilateral and multilateral engagements behind him, Modi is now readying to jet set to five more overseas destinations in the remaining months of 2014, which will take him to three multilaterals — the UN General Assembly in New York, the East Asia Summit in Myanmar and the G20 Summit in Australia. The two bilaterals that Modi will happen in September are the ones with US President Barack Obama in Washington when he is in the US. The trip to Tokyo will be to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who went out of his way to be accommodating, even though Modi’s visit plans have witnessed frequent changes.
Realising the potential of Modi’s global rise, the BJP has taken every opportunity that came its way to tell the world at large, and the countrymen in particular, about his overseas exploits. At the August 9 BJP National Council meet in New Delhi, the newly anointed party president and trusted lieutenant Amit Shah told the 3,000-odd delegates that Modi, as India’s Prime Minister, had restored the global respect India had lost in the previous years.
However, there are pitfalls that Modi needs to be wary of. His government’s recent decision in the World Trade Organisation negotiations at Geneva, where India vetoed a landmark global trade agreement, hasn’t gone down well with global businesses. The strong stand taken by his government shouldn’t deter global investors to look at India as an unpredictable market and that’s where Modi’s challenge lies.
Though he made it clear to the US and global community that national interest would be his government’s primary motivating factor in its international dealings, Modi’s push to energise India’s flailing economy and stabilise its growth could be achieved only when investor sentiments are favourable.
If Modi treads a cautious but determined path internationally, it is onlya matter of time before the world hails his global leadership skills and it will be interesting to watch what he is able to achieve in geopolitics in the months to come.