The year 2016 has been somewhat a mixed bag for India’s defence forces.
The end is always a beginning. So with each year drawing its curtain upon us we look forward to that which opens up to a new day, a new year.
The end of the year is a time of reflection in many ways and as we prepare to cross the threshold into 2017; it is time we take stock of the year gone by and write up the inventory for the next – not only for our personal lives but also the world around us, for after all the personal and the political is part of the same tapestry we call life.
At the two corners of the world and in the world’s two largest democracies a sense of despair seemed to have gripped the two nations as the year drew to a close – one grappling with the sudden loss of currency, the other coming to terms with the election of a reality TV-billionaire business star ready to take seat behind the Oval desk. On the whole 2016 passed by in despair; let’s wish 2017 brings back the hope.
India’s capital Delhi rang in a muffled 2016 swamped under a dense cloud of smog with rising pollution levels risking people’s health. The Delhi government’s New Year gift to the city was an experiment to reduce vehicular emission by introducing the odd-even scheme from the morning of January 1. It turned out to be more odd than even with Delhiites reduced to driving odd and even numbered registered cars on alternate days. It surely tested the city’s endurance index and capacity to make the best of the worst situation. But the 15-day experiment died an unsung death and was not repeated again in the year even though the PM 2.5 (or the particulate matter in the air which is poisonous) levels shot through the sky, literally.
Meanwhile PM 2.0 (that is our Prime Minister with his new monetary policy) grounded the nation, literally, by giving its people 50 days up until the last day of the year to changeover to some pink and green coloured currency notes and taking away the legal tenders of one thousand and five hundred, two instruments the nation found itself struggling and limping without. People’s lives slowed down and market shut down with people desperate to get rid of their invalid notes and hoping to get some new ones. But alas! The new ones were in dire short supply and even as the government struggled to calibrate and recalibrate its policy and decree almost every day, the nation was getting used to standing long hours in queues outside banks and ATMs, a reminder of those snaking lines outside ration shops and kerosene outlets from an era almost fading from the national consciousness.
The day the national capital launched its half-hearted attack against pollution on the city’s roads, not far away in Pathankot, a city on the edge of Kashmir was witness to a daring attack on one of its biggest air bases in the state of Punjab. Such bold and brash attacks from across our western borders on our armed forces became a regular feature through the year. But matters came to a head in September after terrorists attacked an army brigade headquarters in Uri in Kashmir, the state which was engulfed in violent protests since the shooting of the young militant Burhan Wani by security forces. The daily battle between the youth and the forces took a huge toll.
The Narendra Modi government which had swept to power in 2014 with one of its promises being to stand up to Pakistan’s design to bleed India with a thousand cuts, decided it was time to stand up and make that point. So 10 days after the Uri attack, the Indian army carried out a ‘surgical’ strike in the dead of the night across the Line of Control, the de facto border between India and Pakistan. The strike was said to have taken out many terrorist camps that dot the line across the porous border. Pakistan stoutly denied any such strike and since then the number of attacks on security forces has only increased.
Politically the ruling NDA put behind its 2015 losses in Delhi and Bihar and swept to power for the first time in Assam. But the two feisty women of Bengal and Tamil Nadu reinforced their grip in the states. Jayalalithaa, sadly, died months after the victory after suffering for months in a hospital, leaving Tamil Nadu orphaned. On the economic front, the GST Act is slated to be one of the biggest tax reforms undertaken in independent India and seeks to replace indirect taxes with a far simpler system to create a unified national market.
Another major policy decision was the Seventh Pay Commission’s recommendations relating to approximately 4.7 million central government employees. The corporate sector was marked by the internecine wars within one of the largest and respected groups, the Tatas, with Ratan Tata once again taking the saddle by outing Cyrus Mistry.
The other big news from the corporate world was the massive launch of Mukesh Ambani’s Jio 4G that surely will disrupt the whole telecom business by its aggressive marketing. And with the government determined to move from a cashless to a less cash economy, Jio is surely going to live and try and not let live the other telecom players. It will be a battle worth watching in 2017.
In the second half of the year, the Rio Olympics in Brazil took centre-stage for the world but for India it was one more noserub for the country of a billion people. Rio will be remembered for the swimmer of all time Michael Phelps going on to win an alltime record of 28 individual medals, 23 of them Gold. The other great image that will remain embedded is the world’s fastest runner turning a cheeky smile toward the camera before bolting the 100m tape. Yes, it was Husain Bolt! Michael Phelps alone took away more medals at Rio than the whole Indian contingent. And it was the women who came to the rescue – Sindhu, Sakshi, Deepa and Aditi – to keep us away from a zero tally. The embarrassment was redeemed ever-so-partially by the four women — silver shuttler PV Sindhu, bronze wrestler Sakshi Malik, a refreshingly confident gymnast Dipa Karmakar and 18-year-old golfer Aditi Ashok, the last two missing the podium but giving a worthy account of themselves, treading into unchartered territory as Indian women athletes.
At the international political-economy level, three events have the potential to impact global growth, governance and how things change over the medium to long term.
The first: Brexit, the exit of Britain from the European Union, an event that hogged the headlines and has the potential with far-reaching consequences about the Idea of Europe. It could, in fact, be the trigger to an end to the Idea of Europe.
The other major event that shook the world and will have its impact on the world is the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the United States of America. Trump has little experience of politics and governance and his foreign policy and attitude to trade will have a significant bearing on global competitiveness and growth.
The third being the signing of the OPEC deal and, post this, the deal to curb production by non-OPEC oil-producing countries, including Russia, all of which could limit global production and cause increases in the price of oil. The ensuing price rise due to production cuts does have the potential to be seen as a major concern in emerging oil-consuming markets like India, which imports roughly 80 percent of its crude oil needs.
Other events which made headlines in 2016 were the impeachment of two women, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff for tweaking government figures and President Park Geun-Hye of South Korea over her aide Choi Soon-sil using her position to seek funds from big business.
Turkish President Recep Ergodan faced a failed coup attempt with forces loyal to him defeating the forces trying to seize control. 2016 saw the Middle East caught in turmoil with Syria, in particular, suffering untold misery but largely ignored by world media. According to the UNHRC, at the start of 2016 more that 65 million people had been forcibly displaced from their homes leading to a huge immigrant problem across the world which reflected in the politics of exclusivity gaining ground and the rise of rightwing re-assertion.
As millions of refugees on the run from violence back home sought asylum and homes in countries around Europe, it was large-hearted Germany which opened its doors and young Justin Trudeau in Canada ready to give them a home. But then Islamic terror across the world was to make the cause of these refugees more vulnerable. From Berlin to Brussels to Bangladesh, there were horrifying attacks in Istanbul, Nice and in the Ivory Coast.
While Obama managed to push through the lifting of sanctions against Iran and reopen its counsellor doors to Cuba, it was the passing of an era in the death of the last remaining revolutionaries, Commandante Fidel Castro, who till the very end, thumbed his nose at the giant US bearing over his little island state.
Some of the other big losses were the death of The Greatest ever, the beautiful and fleet-footed Mohammed Ali who was not only the greatest boxer the world has ever seen but also an anti-war hero and the man who always fought against racism and for what was right. Harper Lee died too, leaving the world with her iconic and forever-book, To Kill a Mocking Bird, about racial injustice in a small Alabama town. The book sold more than 40 million copies and became one of the most beloved and most taught works of fiction written by an American.
The year also marked sad adieu to many other great authors like philosophernovelist Umberto Eco, British novelist Anita Brookner, Nobel winners Imre Kertesz, Dario Fo and Elie Wiesel, American journalist and writer Michael Herr, American futurist Alvin Toffler, India’s Mahasweta Devi, Russia’s Fazil Iskander, American playwright Edward Albee (Whose Afraid of Virginia Woolf), Urdu poet and critic Malikazada Manzoor Ahmed and American novelist EM Nathanson, whose The Dirty Dozen inspired the iconic war movie.
2016 also seemed like the year the music died. It couldn’t get darker than this with the world’s best know poet-singer-troubadour Leonard Cohen exiting the world, and joining him in the galactic band were singersongwriter innovator David Bowie, the prince of rock, Prince and on Christmas day it was George Michael who left the stage. Princess Leia the petite star from the Star Wars enacted by Carrie Fisher followed Michael. It seemed it was time for celebrity baby boomers to exit the world stage.
In the middle of such sadness, a mother was resurrected by the Vatican and given to the world as Saint Teresa, the frail woman who worked her life for the poor and destitute in the bylanes of Calcutta.
Thus, the world in 2016 saw some good and some not so good events. Policy happenings to look out for in the coming year include the rise in Fed interest rates which already have seen an increase once in 2016 and the ensuing FPI outflows from emerging markets as the American economy tightens its monetary policy.
Apart from this, prices of oil could be another important thing to look into for Indian policymakers. Internally, the banking sector and its stress, as well as growth forecasts, post demonetisation, and formal job creation are some of the other things to look out for the early part of the coming year.
Other things to look out for in the domestic arena include the assembly elections, particularly in UP, which could decide how the government moves from here on in the remaining part of its term that ends in May 2019. And then there are Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur also ready for elections. The year-end could possibly see elections in Modi’s home state Gujarat too. In fact, the 2017 elections will be the precursor for the crucial central elections in 2019.
And so the year 2016 comes to an end. The door has been slammed on it and the fresh air of 2017 is flowing freely. We need to feel excited for these next twelve months! What a gift we have in new beginnings!