Is India ready to break its caste, class, religious boundaries in electing its representatives to the states and the Centre? It may well be on its way, especially after Uttar Pradesh’s defining verdict in favour of one party virtually wiping out the two regional parties which have been holding sway on the country’s most populous and electoral-sensitive state
The landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, apart from prompting paeans of praise for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has revealed trends that could have enormous consequences for the country as a whole.
The first set of implications has to do with the polity.
Lesson number one is that Indian voters of late have shown an inclination to vote decisively when they feel change is imperative. Otherwise, they equivocate and tend to give a fractured mandate.
Three elections stand out in recent times: Delhi 2015, Uttar Pradesh 2017 and Punjab 2017
In 2013 and 2015, fed up with the muchpublicised corruption of the Congress regime, Delhi voters swung decisively towards the newly formed Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) led by the maverick Arvind Kejriwal. In the 2015 state elections, Kejriwal’s AAP secured a landslide, winning 57 of 60 assembly seats.
This kind of electoral behaviour was rare in the past and was usually occasioned by some momentous events. A case in point was Rajiv Gandhi’s remarkable victory in the 1984 general elections following the assassination of his mother, Indira Gandhi. Today, this kind of outcome seems to have become something of a trend.
In Punjab, the misrule of the Akali Dal and the plummeting economic fortunes of the state had for some years signalled a great desire for change. The BJP tied to the Akalis in Punjab was doomed by association.
In Uttar Pradesh, corruption and lawlessness unleashed by the ruling Samajwadi Party had generated similar widespread fear and loathing
Not surprisingly, in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab during the 2017 assembly polls, the vote was decisive, favouring the BJP and Congress parties respectively.
In all three cases, speculation about hung assemblies or fractured mandates proved erroneous. The verdict was decisive and overwhelming - in Uttar Pradesh in 2017 the BJP won a record 312 out of a total of 403 seats while in Punjab the Congress romped home with 77 of 117 seats.
This points to the effectiveness of public resentment, the volatility of voting behaviour and the erosion of fixed loyalties. The segment of voters defined as “floating voters” is rising and increasingly determining the outcome of elections.
While no systematic study has been done on the erosion of traditional political loyalties it might be safe to speculate that this reflects the growing numbers of youthful voters in the country and their lack of commitment to any one party. Now it is aspirations that matter, not a particular party, leader or slogan.
This young aspirational class is quintessentially pragmatic rather than ideological and being more connected than ever, is very likely to vote in a decisive manner. This behaviour could well trump familiar class and caste considerations in the coming months and years.
Prime Minister Modi appears to be tuned on to this sentiment. Commenting after the polls at the India Today Conclave 2017, he said: “Like the freedom movement, we need a movement for development, where collective aspirations propel the growth of the nation.”
The younger and floating voters’ tendency to evaluate electoral options irrespective of ideology or political loyalties also suggests that the perceived credibility of leaders has become crucial
Thus, Mayawati, leader of the BahujanSamaj Party (BSP), despite being touted as Uttar Pradesh’s Dalit and Muslim champion, could not attract the swing votes necessary for victory and crashed at the ballot.
The pro-development agenda of Samajwadi Party chief minister Akhilesh Yadav lacked credibility in the face of criminal wrongdoings of some of his ministers and the general state of lawlessness in the state. The National Bureau of Crime statistics reveals that the crime rate in the state is double the national average.
The development slogan too was hollow as the state has seen few major investments in recent years. The Singapore-based Asian Competitiveness Institute has ranked Uttar Pradesh as the most difficult state in India to do business
James Owen, India head of Security Risks, pointed out in an The Economic Times article: “Incidents such as the 2013 Hindu-Muslim riots in the western district of Muzaffarnagar, which left at least 62 people dead and rendered hundreds homeless, have contributed to UP’s dubious reputation of being a highlycharged communal cauldron, which has acted as a significant barrier for major foreign investments.”
The problems of corruption and criminality, Owen argues have been compounded by the fact that as much as a fourth of election candidates from Uttar Pradesh this time had serious criminal charges against them. “Extortion and violent crime are of particular concern for businesses, especially those engaged in politically exposed sectors such as infrastructure and alcohol. The new government will need to strengthen local law enforcement and curb the influence of gangs in order to provide a secure environment for businesses,” he feels.
The Samajwadi Party leadership in Uttar Pradesh assumed that populist propaganda combined with muscle power would see it through in the polls.
However, as it turned out, both Mr Yadav and Ms Mayawati, caste champions who had dominated Uttar Pradesh for the past couple of decades, stripped of all credibility, were utterly rejected.
Similarly, Kejriwal, who had presumed Punjab would be a repeat of Delhi, was brought down to earth by voters who felt the Congress led by Captain Amarinder Singh was more credible than any of his opponents
Prime Minister Modi, no matter what his critics might vociferate, is clearly the country’s most credible leader at this juncture of history and therefore a huge vote getter in elections where voters are looking for an alternative.
Younger voters, being non-ideological,are not bothered whether Mr Modi is perceived as right-wing, pro-Hindu or rightist; they see him as a person purporting to fix a corrupt, inefficient and broken system. This is his core USP.
However, even this credibility is ultimately fragile and will depend entirely on how Modi performs in the next couple of years. Should his promises fail, like it
has largely done in the city of Varanasi, the 2019 Parliamentary polls could well see him struggling, especially if challenged by more credible opponents
Prime Minister Modi would do well to note that it has taken less than two years for Arvind Kejriwal’s credibility to plummet, transforming him from a winner to a plaintive loser holding inert voting machines responsible for his defeat.
While the overall trend that emerges from the latest round of state polls is encouraging, the major discordant note is the situation of its sizeable Muslim population (19 per cent) in the Uttar Pradesh elections.
While the BSP had allocated 100 tickets to Muslim candidates and the Samajwadi Party 70, the BJP had not fielded a single Muslim candidate. This was despite the belief that the Muslim vote plays a critical role in at least 130 of the 403 assembly seats in the state.
The BJP victory thus came as a shock to Muslim voters, the overwhelming majority of whom had voted against the BJP. Their distress was compounded by the appointment of a hard-line Hindu cleric, Yogi Adityanath as chief minister
The BJP message that it could rule the state without Muslim support is a game changer and also one that could sharply increase polarisation. Matters could worsen if Uttar Pradesh’s new chief minister follows a pro-Hindu agenda and goes through with the promise to construct the Ram Temple at Ayodhya.
Modi’s choice of UP chief minister was political, perhaps with an eye to the 2019 general elections. For, few can dispute that Yogi Adityanath is hugely popular among BJP supporters, both for his Hindutva ideology and a tough, clean image
The BJP leadership has sought to moderate the power of the new UP chief minister by simultaneously appointing two deputy chief ministers, Keshav Prasad Maurya, an OBC and Dinesh Sharma, a Brahmin
Yogi Adityanath’s deputies are considered to be action oriented, prodevelopment leaders who could take charge of day to day running of the state administration, leaving politics and posturing to the chief minister.
Yogi Adityanath, after being elected, made it a point to declare that he would follow Prime Minister Modi's 'sabka saath, sabka vikas' slogan and promised to take Uttar Pradesh on the road to economic development.
It remains to be seen whether Uttar Pradesh will sink into a communal morass or rise to become the “Uttam (Excellent) Pradesh” Modi has promised.
While the future of Uttar Pradesh will remain a question mark in the near and medium terms, there is no doubt that the huge electoral victory in that state will strengthen Prime Minister Modi at the Centre.
During the last three years, Modi has been severely hamstrung by his party’s lack of numbers in the upper house, the Rajya Sabha, where the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government led by the BJP currently, has just about 30 per cent of seats. This has made it impossible for the government to pass crucial legislation without the support of the Opposition
Next year, sixty-nine seats in the Rajya Sabha (254 seats) will come up for reelection and it is quite possible that the NDA alliance will end up with a majority. If this happens the Prime Minister’s hand would be greatly strengthened.
This is expected to boost the reform process. William Foster, Moody's Vice President, feels that “electoral support at the state level should translate into broader support for government policy in the Upper House, facilitating the passage and implementation of additional reforms
Foster also believes that “collaboration between the central government and the new BJP-led states could improve, partially circumventing impediments to reform at the federal level on politically sensitive issues like land and labour reforms.”
The Opposition has been consistently targeting Prime Minister Modi’s reforms and related agenda to score political brownie points. The demonetisation exercise met similar political opposition, but in the end only vindicated the Prime Minister’s stand. The Uttar Pradesh electoral victory has taken the wind away from the Opposition’s sails.
It is widely expected that the Prime Minister will now vigorously pursue his reforms and development agenda without looking behind his shoulders. Not surprisingly, corporations, foreign investors and the stock markets have given a huge thumbs-up to the BJP for its Uttar Pradesh victory.
Yet, the road ahead is fraught with its share of uncertainties. Will the Prime Minister be resolute but compassionate, or more aggressive and driven by hubris? Will he take the hard decisions required to clean the administrative system, the polity and economy or will he let those matters slide and substitute them with populist measures designed to appeal to the masses?
While the picture is not clear at this stage, some signs are discouraging. This includes the signals coming off from the decision to waive farm loans in Uttar Pradesh, and then perhaps in Maharashtra as well. Apart from opening up a deluge of similar requests from other states, the decision smacks of bad economics and dubious populism.
Arundhati Bhattacharya, chief of the country largest bank, the State Bank of India (SBI), has warned against implementing such a decision, arguing that writing off loans sets a bad precedent, weakens the banking system and leads to the expectation of future loan write-offs.
From all indications, the farm loan waiver will be implemented, but it remains to be seen whether it will be a one-off step. More important is the Modi regime’s plan to massively step up public investments in the next two years to accelerate growth, especially in the infrastructure sector, and hopefully generate jobs in the process
While measures such as the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the abolition of check posts and other road barriers, stepped up federal expenditure are certain to boost the economy, the huge drag of bad loans in the banking sector, unrelenting red tape (especially at the state level) and widespread corruption will conspire to counter the positives. The real test of the Uttar Pradesh elections will come two years down the line, in time for the 2019 parliamentary elections.
Will the country’s worst performing state, one with the most corrupt administration and egregious caste and communal politics rise up to the rhetoric generated by Prime Minister Modi’s election promises?