K L SRIVASTAVA// In the #BattlegroundBihar, the Mahagathbandhan had a decisive 168 seats vis-a-vis NDA’s 58. The breakup within the ahagathbandhan was Lalu’s 80 seats and Nitish’s JD(U) 71. This equation, by any political logic, makes Lalu the kingmaker. However, the political and social reality on the ground in Bihar has changed. Changed might be a milder word, actually — it’s more like transformed. Lalu is no longer the old Lalu, of the 1990s and Nitish, in the newly-created socio-political space occupies a position of significance that cannot be ignored.
The national significance of this ex-employee of Bihar State Electricity Board, is well-established by the fact that BJP President Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi both stormed Bihar for campaigning to ensure the defeat of the Mahagathbandhan. The only leader they were watching and responding to was the incumbent Chief Minister of Bihar, Nitish Kumar. The question most are asking is will this alliance last? Well, I think this will last and will last its full term.
Post his heart surgery and conviction in the fodder scam leading to him being barred from contesting polls, Lalu was looking for a political resurrection of his political party. He needs this not for him anymore, but for his sons, Tejaswi and Tej Pratap, whom he appears to be handing over the reign to (who eventually takes over Lalu’s legacy is a question time will tell).
Lalu knows that he is no longer capable of a sprint, and hence decided to participate in a relay race instead. If we compare the old and the new Lalu, the recklessness and bluster was missing in the new avatar. He is more cautious and measured in his responses to the media. He is no longer playing to the gallery full of his sycophants. In fact, in all of the election campaign, there was only one sound bite of Lalu that caught the fancy of the electronic media — the one in Patna where he copied the Prime Minister Narendra Modi; where Modi talks about Nitish’s failure in bringing electricity to villages. Lalu is a male chauvinist patriarch and this is a well-established fact. For him the urgency to establish his sons is of paramount concern. Misa can wait.
The two boys have been given an opportunity to make a political windfall. It is important for the two to make an image of their own and come out of their corruption tainted father’s shadow (might sound brutal but is true). This is their big opportunity and that they want to work is reflective in the fact that one has chosen/ given road and the other health.
It is win-win situation for Nitish Kumar. Nitish knows that Lalu’s track record as a corrupt politician is well established and the last thing he or his sons will do is take that path all over again at the first given instance. It would be committing hara-kiri. Numbers wise, Nitish is sitting comfortably to have free hand in doing what he does best, administer.
Lalu and Nitish together enjoy 46 per cent voteshare; they should read the writing on the wall and dedicate the next five years for the Bihar government to roll in the investments on the ground and create jobs. Nitish as CM and Lalu as his close ally/ confidant now need to consolidate on the good work done over the past 10 years and convert this mandate into creation of wealth for the state of Bihar.
SASHEE KUMAR// The electorate in Bihar has voted for biology, again. It is more to do with the phrase dushman ka dushman, dost (An enemy’s enemy is a friend). Even though the BJP emerged as the singlelargest party in terms of vote share, the Bihar verdict highlights the party’s vulnerability to united opposition. Nitish Kumar should not for a moment feel he could possibly challenge Narendra Modi, for the alliance itself is a prime example of how fickle the game of politics can be. Once sworn enemies, Nitish and Lalu are now allies.
Both have mercurial personalities; the leadership of two former rival parties are ruthlessly ambitious. For them politics is a private affair. The alliance, therefore, is really challenging in terms of political management since both Nitish and Lalu have a markedly different style of governance and politicking.
Lalu stood for anarchy, and has little patience for administration. He is known to be politically assertive and authoritarian. Nitish, on the other hand, has given freedom to bureaucrats and officials; he may set the guidelines and supervise at a macro level, but he does not interfere, especially in law and order cases. Perhaps, this is what allowed for a certain amount of law and order to prevail after Lalu’s crime-pocked years. The problems are now compounded for Nitish, since the ministers are Lalu’s while the administration is his.
The second Achilles heel is the interface between the government and the party machinery. Both parties that have entered the alliance have distinct political capital, which may not be so well-connected on the ground. RJD’s organisation is strong and close-knit as opposed to the sketchy one of JD (U). Nitish will be compromising on a lot of ideas and ideals.
When one considers the core issues that concern the electorate — development — both Lalu and Nitish have different interpretations. Nitish would like to address his social base but also deliver on infrastructure. For Lalu, politics has always been about providing his own constituents with state resources and opportunities. And with 80 seats in kitty, Lalu would like to have more than fair play in partnership, which he made clear by certain appointments in Cabinet. Lalu made his political ambitions clear by installing his son as Deputy Chief Minister.
It is also imperative to bear in mind that the “forward class” did not vote for the alliance. The key to when and how the divorce in this marriage happens lies in whether the relationship will be accommodative, or confrontational. Not just between Lalu-Nitish or RJD-JD (U), but also between the upper-lower castes that are expected to walk the tightrope in Nitish’s “Badh Chala Bihar” agenda.